Precautions for the day after tomorrow - Page 2
From Griffith REVIEW Edition 12: Hot Air
© Copyright Griffith University & the author.
Written by Michael Heazle
PROPONENTS OF THE GLOBAL-WARMING SCENARIO CONSISTENTLY ADVOCATE a precautionary approach to the potential threat of rising ocean levels, a stalled Gulf Stream, increased desertification and a host of extreme weather events. It is an approach best illustrated by the vexed ambitions of the Kyoto Protocol and its goal of lowering carbon dioxide emissions in the hope of lessening expected impacts of global warming. The longer-term risks posed by global warming, precautionary advocates argue, are so great they negate the uncertainties or short-term costs.
In other words, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. But one of the problems with the so-called "precautionary principle" approach to future threats and risks – in addition to the challenge of clearly identifying the potential threats and understanding their nature and likelihood – is the fact that attempts to address one set of risks invariably create other, often unanticipated, risks. As one "proglobal warming" scientist recently put it, although his intentions for doing so were somewhat different from mine, "uncertainty is inevitable, but risk is certain".
And indeed it is. Drastically reducing carbon dioxide emissions may well reduce the future risk of climate-related disasters and hardship. But what additional risks are incurred by doing so, and are they more or less of a threat than the risks they were originally designed to mitigate? One illustration of the unavoidable nature of risk in the context of global warming is provided by the geopolitical instability and tension that would almost certainly result from attempts to impose short-term emission reductions on sovereign states, at a time when energy-access concerns are already creating what some are calling "a new great game" of strategy in Eastern and Central Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
Developing countries like India, China and Indonesia are highly sensitive to the economic costs, especially in relation to energy supply, that dramatic short-term emission reductions would bring. As the fall of the Soeharto regime in Indonesia in the late 1990s demonstrated, stalled economic growth can easily lead to destabilisation of the government and even the state itself, with the potential for internal instability to then spill over and compromise the security (both human and national) of other states or entire regions.
Another "risk" emerges from the emergence of nuclear power as a possible solution to the problem of reducing GHG emissions. Not surprisingly, global-warming scenarios have added a new lustre to the tarnished image of nuclear power. Are the risks of nuclear power and waste less than those of global warming? "Yes" is the rather predictable reply from the nuclear-power lobby, but how big a threat are modern nuclear power stations and who is going to live near them? Equally worrying is the issue of where the waste will be stored, not to mention the question of how much of it will actually become weapons-grade plutonium rather than waste, particularly if fast-breeder reactors become the preferred generators.
If the consequences of global warming are even half as bad as some scientists would have us believe, do the risks posed by nuclear power then become acceptable, and if so, by whose reckoning? A precautionary approach, rather than eliminating or reducing risk, merely changes the kinds of risk we are exposing ourselves to. The question then becomes one of which risks we want to avoid and what we are prepared to sacrifice to do so.
It is a mistake to be focusing on emission reductions, since there are far too many uncertainties and risks involved for us to act with any reasonable degree of confidence in identifying and then selecting those we prefer to face or avoid. Supporters of the mainstream global-warming view often argue that future generations will never forgive us if we fail to act against the future consequences. That is no doubt true, but this argument assumes that we know what the consequences are and also neglects the possibility that drastic action today – on the basis of untestable assumptions about the future – may also have consequences that our great-grandchildren will find equally difficult to forgive – development failures, worsening poverty, neglect of other pressing environmental and social issues, and greater risk of military conflict.
CRITICS OF THE KYOTO PROTOCAL ARE RIGHT WHEN THEY ARGUE that its strategies are undermined by too many questionable assumptions about the likely costs and by divisions, even among those who support the global-warming consensus, over how effective the protocol's reductions would be, even if full international cooperation and implementation were possible. Prominent among such critics, unfortunately, are those who prefer to use the Kyoto Protocol's shortcomings as a political foil for having no climate-change strategy rather than as a reason for developing an effective alternative.
During the inaugural meeting of the six-member Asia Pacific Partnership group (AP6) in January, two of the Kyoto Protocol's two biggest critics, US President George W. Bush and Australian Prime Minister John Howard, talked up the importance of developing renewable energy sources as a way of combating global-warming threats without incurring crippling economic penalties. Their actions failed to do their words justice. Howard, for example, made it clear that the Australian Government remains committed to fossil fuels, calling them "an enduring reality for our lifetime and beyond", and therefore places a comparatively low priority on ensuring their replacement by alternative energy sources any time soon.
Of the $100 million Howard has dedicated to the partnership over the next five years, Australia will contribute only $5 million a year to renewable-energy projects. This, according to a government press release, is in addition to the $200 million the government claims it has already invested in developing renewable energy. (Meanwhile, $500 million has been "invested" in so-called "low-emission technologies".) The US government, which spends more than $US400 billion on its military each year, committed a meagre $US52 million from its 2007 budget, subject to approval by Congress.
Both governments essentially used the AP6 as cover for dodging global warming by announcing their intention to pass the job of developing and implementing new energy technology to the private sector. Like the Kyoto Protocol, AP6 is looking more like an exercise in symbolism, the partnership as a disguise for effectively doing nothing.
Talks on the framework to replace the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012 began last year, and the early indications are that the blueprint is in trouble and may be shelved. Among the possible alternatives is the idea of replacing the existing focus on crude emission cuts with targets for the development and implementation of renewable-energy targets, an encouraging sign that at least some governments are beginning to treat renewable-energy technology as a serious alternative for dealing with climate change.
Climate-change research, in the meantime, should continue with greater support from governments in the hope that future results will better account for the many uncertainties we now face and allow more informed policy decisions in future. The Kyoto Protocol should be scrapped and replaced by an international treaty that reflects a real and determined commitment to develop alternative energy aimed at replacing fossil fuels in the short to medium term. By doing so, we will not only hedge our bets against the potential effects of climate change and our responses to it, but also build an enduring legacy for future generations that will "certainly" be appreciated. ♦
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References
David C. Lowe, "A green source of surprise", Nature, vol. 439, no. 12, January 12, 2006, pp. 148-49.
Jenny Hogan, "Only huge emission cuts will curb climate change", New Scientist.com, February 3, 2005, http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6964&print=true
Joint Australian Federal Government press Release, "Asia Pacific Partnership Sets New Path To Address Climate Change", January 12, 2006, http://www.pm.gov.au/news/media_releases/media_Release1743.html; "Ferguson splits left on Kyoto", The Australian, January 13, 2006, http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/printpage/0,5942,17808347,00.html